Mapping the supply of nature’s contributions to people on Mount Kilimanjaro

Mount Kilimanjaro, with its steep elevational gradient (770–5886 m a.s.l.) and pronounced land-use heterogeneity, supports high biodiversity and diverse nature’s contributions to people (NCP), but it is underrepresented in global spatial assessments. We address this gap by mapping NCP supply across 12 ecosystem types on the southern slopes identifying hotspots and coldspots and quantifying synergies and trade-offs among NCP categories. We use 25 context-specific NCP categories that integrate local and scientific knowledge with field measurements and remote-sensing-derived proxies. Combining long-term field data with remote sensing and machine learning, we upscaled plot-scale indicators into standardized supply maps. Total NCP supply is strongly concentrated in mid-elevation ecosystems: the 1100–2200 m band alone accounted for ∼59% of total supply compared with ∼18% in the lowlands (700–1100 m), and the 1100–2800 m belts together provide ∼73%, whereas high-elevation zones (2800–4600 m) contribute <9%. Hotspots clustered in lower montane forest, Ocotea forest and homegardens at mid-elevations, while coldspots occur in Erica forest and Helichrysum vegetation at high elevations and in maize fields and savanna at low elevations. We detected moderate ( r = 0.55) to strong synergies ( r = 0.83) among the three NCP groups (material, regulating, non-material). After accounting for climatic co-variation, the correlations among NCP groups weakened ( r = 0.23–0.44), underscoring the critical role of climate for NCP supply. Our study maps NCP hotspots and coldspots across Mt. Kilimanjaro and provides a decision-support layer for conservation, restoration and agroforestry management, as well as a blueprint for spatially-explicit NCP mapping and analyses.