Co-designing futures: a foresight approach to envisioning sustainable landscapes

Landscapes worldwide are rapidly changing, driven by land-use practices that threaten social–ecological sustainability. While the need for transition to a more sustainable landscapes is widely recognized, questions remain about what constitutes a desirable future landscape and how to achieve it, particularly when policy priorities differ from local aspirations. Addressing these issues requires place-based approaches that enable stakeholders to negotiate and co-design alternative futures. This study examines how participatory landscape visioning and backcasting can be systematically integrated with the Three Horizons framework to support the development of shared visions and pathways. We conducted an empirical case study in the Jimma zone of southwestern Ethiopia through two rounds of participatory workshops involving 164 participants from various governance levels. The results indicate stakeholders generally agreed on a multifunctional landscape vision, including a shared vision of the study area as a biosphere reserve integrating biodiversity conservation with local livelihoods. However, differences emerged regarding agricultural production, land tenure, and large-scale investment. Some higher-level stakeholders supported intensive, investment-oriented approaches, while local stakeholders favored diversified, non-commodified land tenure. These differences were reconciled through iterative dialogue and co-development of ten overarching landscape principles. Recognizing the landscape as a biosphere reserve and promoting bioeconomy emerged as key strategies. These findings suggest divergences among stakeholders represent alternative strategies, not fundamentally conflicting goals, and can be reconciled through shared visions. The ten overarching landscape principles align with agroecological principles, highlighting their role in sustainable landscape transformation. However, realizing the vision requires supportive policy and can be accelerated through platforms like Living Labs.